Bitcoin Gold hype is starting to escalate and Bitcoin is appreciating against other cryptocurrencies. Reddit has made numerous posts now discussing the worrisome elements of Bitcoin Gold, yet the market continues to be resilient in the face of several risks. As such, we are seeing some evidence that the Bitcoin Gold hard fork is much more hyped than I initially anticipated. I originally believed it would fly under the radar and act similar to a dividend while the main focus remained on 2X. I’m beginning to think otherwise given recent events.
I see a few scenarios occurring with Bitcoin Gold:
1) The market holds through the hard fork and Bitcoin Gold has a steady price level. This is unlikely as BTG will likely be exceptionally volatile.
2) The market holds through the hard fork and Bitcoin Gold tanks as people sell in order to buy more Bitcoin. Combined market cap should be relatively close in the long-term, but we may see it be higher in short-term. Bitcoin’s price can leg higher.
3) The market holds through the hard fork and everyone sells off BOTH Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin as they realize everyone was investing for the same reason.
I’m most concerned with scenario three. I originally anticipated this scenario to occur with 2X and not Bitcoin Gold, but we are seeing more discussion of BTG now than SegWit2X almost. As such, scenario 3 has drastically improved in probability. It may be advisable, if you are investing in Bitcoin right now, to sell BEFORE the hard-fork, as odd as that may sound.
If you are sticking with altcoins, like I am, I expect two scenarios with these. The first scenario is where Bitcoin continues to leg higher above $5,000 to $6,000. In this event, I expect a similar reversal like we saw in mid-August, where altcoins will begin to catch up with Bitcoin as it heads to new all-time highs.
The second scenario is we see a major correction in Bitcoin as a result of these hard forks and capital flows back into altcoins. They’ll likely be down as well, but not nearly as much as Bitcoin. At this time, I see many altcoins as attractive and would consider placing in lowball limit orders to ideally pick some up for cheap.
How will you prepare over the next month? Let me know in the comments – always happy to hear your thoughts!
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