Yesterday I recorded a video while Bitcoin was around $6,300 USD, and I speculated that BTC would rise to perhaps $7,500 USD, then today it happened.
What does this mean?
There are two considerations:
1) The price rise and daily volume which is currently over 7 Billion dollars are both very bullish.
2) But… the price of USD Tether is down significantly, and Bitfinex, which is in bed with Tether, is one of the highest priced BTC markets today, meaning that Tether sales, specifically on Bitfinex is in part driving this move and that is a bearish consideration.
So what do I expect now?
To be perfectly clear, as I say in the video, I am not playing this game, I buy and hold, not trade.
Having said that I am beginning to think the BTC bear market might actually be over…
So is the Bitcoin bear market over? Maybe, but I’m not certain, and regardless my plan remains the same: accumulate, accumulate, accumulate, by dollar cost averaging.
Wow that would be friggin amazing.
But we are NOT out of the woods yet. As I stated above, Tether and Bitfinex are at least in part responsible for this Bitcoin price increase. And that is not in my view sustainable.
Additionally, Bitmex daily BTC volume is by itself nearly 4 billion dollars, but what you have to know about that is Bitmex allows 25x leverage on trading. So how much of that daily trading volume is actually just leverage at work? I don’t know but that is definitely a consideration which restrains my optimism.
I remain cautiously optimistic about cryptocurrency making it out of the bear market before end of 2018.
That does not mean I am buying more crypto today, why? Because I have been buying my coins every month, during the bear market, and I will keep dollar cost averaging no matter what happens tomorrow, next week, or next month. I don’t panic buy anything, and I don’t panic sell anything either.
I am not calling the bull market today, but I am saying I think we will look back on this period (August – October 2018) as the beginning of the end of the 2018 bear market.
The problem is this, how long exactly can this transition between bear and bull markets go on? Perhaps a while.
What do you all think?
Are you buying crypto today? Are you bullish yet? What would make you bullish?
As always, thank you for your time and attention. Have an awesome day and God bless.
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